SYST
473
Decision
and Risk Analysis
Spring
2005
Instructor: Dr. Andrew Loerch
Office: Science and Tech II, Room 119
Phone: (703)
993-1657 (O); (703) 709-7465 (H)
E-mail:
aloerch@gmu.edu
Office
Hours: Before or after class, or by appointment
Text: Strategic Decision Making: Multiobjective Decision Analysis with
Spreadsheets,
Description: The intent of this course is to provide a modern perspective on analytical methodologies to support decision making. Decision analysis offers a set of structured procedures that assist decision-makers in structuring decision problems and developing creative decision options, quantifying their uncertainty (this includes combining available statistics with expert judgments, and their own beliefs to arrive at estimates of the probabilities of various outcomes), quantifying their preferences (this includes structuring their value tradeoffs and examining their attitude towards risk), combining their uncertainty and preferences to arrive at “good” decisions. This course provides an introductory treatment of decision analysis. The intended participants are students who want to learn more about decision making under uncertainty and tools that can be used to support it. Other information.
Topic Reading
Assignment*
Introduction
and Review of Probability Read
Chapt.1
Review Problem Sheet Bayes
Value
Focused Thinking changed, Value Hierarchies Read
Handout and Chapts. 2, 3
Value
Functions and Weight Elicitation AHP Read Chapt. 4 Homework Problems AHP HW
Decisions
Under Uncertainty Read
Chapt. 5 Decision Tree HW
Influence
Diagrams Read
Appendix D.
Bayesian Networks Read Handout
Utility Functions Read
Chapt. 6 Utility
and Sensitivity HW
* Homework sets will be assigned on a
weekly basis from appropriate problems in the textbook and on handouts.
Grading: Midterm 30%
Final Exam 30%
Project 30%
Class & Homework 10%
100%